THE AFGHAN TRAGEDY

When it comes to the on-going Afghan tragedy, a few quotes spring to mind, Karl Marx said "Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce." Winston Churchill said, "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it" and “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.” When it comes to Afghanistan there is more than enough history to provide enough examples of what to do and what to avoid.

The long and bloody history of Afghanistan is littered literally with the would-be invaders who came to grief and eventually through in the towel and admitted defeat. Back in May of this year, almost unnoticed an anniversary passed, Wednesday 15th May 2021 was the thirty third anniversary of the start of the then Soviet Union’s nine month long withdrawal from Afghanistan. Around 100,000 Soviet troops had left the war torn country by February 15, 1989. This was the conclusion to ten years of brutal warfare which had killed over 14,000 Soviet soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Afghan combatants and civilians.

The Soviet withdrawal in 1989

NATO forces had been on the ground in Afghanistan since the 7th October 2001, and preparations for NATO’s withdrawal (which were originally to be completed by 2014) were finally if hastily completed this summer. Unlike their Soviet predecessors who treated much of Afghanistan as free fire zone, NATO forces were relatively restrained when it came to using their firepower - although many Afghans might have begged to differ. Despite this many people have argued that just like their Soviet predecessors NATO troops in Afghanistan found themselves engaged in waging a campaign which was "unwinnable in military terms".

‘Lessons from Afghanistan’s History for the Current Transition and Beyond’ was a thought provoking paper produced by the MOD Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (in May 2013) it made interesting reading.  The paper noted that between 1933 to 1973, Afghanistan was stable and reasonably effectively governed, however, that stability was firmly anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and the Afghan state such as it was a weak centralised though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978.

Afghanistan history’s is littered with a series of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the presidential election in 2014, saw the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. The paper noted that any expectations about the pace of any progress and reform should be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions needed to be recognised.

‘A new approach to understanding Afghanistan’s transition’ was produced by the United States Institute for Peace also made interesting reading. This paper by way of comparison with other countries who have passed though conflict, significant military intervention and  a post conflict period of transition looked at Afghanistan and its preparedness for life after NATO. Amongst the key issues that this report flags up is the issue of foreign aid and its impact on Afghanistan.

In 2013 there was been a relative flood of papers from a whole range of military and civilian institutes studying and analysing what has happened and what might happen in Afghanistan once NATO left. Back in May 2013 I noted that our soldiers and their families and many Afghans will carry the physical and mental scars for decades, and that the politicians (at least in the West) will probably do their best to air brush Afghanistan and the consequences of NATO’s intervention and subsequent withdrawal to that of being out of site and out of mind and off the media, much like South Vietnam (in 1975). 

Saigon 1975

Back in May 2013 I wrote, as someone who has had relatives who served a number of tours in Afghanistan ( and Iraq ) who come back in one piece I will (no doubt along with more than a few other people) be more than grateful when the last NATO soldier hops on the last plane and comes home. Following NATO’S withdrawal I had little doubt that what will follow will be a public redefinition of ‘success’ at least as it is applied to Afghanistan - though the speed of the shambolic collapse of the Afghan state means that they will have a hard job justifying anything. 

Kabul 2021

The peace negotiations began the process of undermining some of the gains that some Afghan women and girls had made over the previous twenty years. President Trump’s final decision to pull out  (a decision that President Biden was never going to reverse) paved the way for the emergence of a Taliban governed unitary Afghan state which will probably complete the process of obliterating women’s human rights. The collapse leaves the Afghans (in general) and Afghan women (in particular) facing a decidedly uncertain and potentially dangerous future.